***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -3.3 23.2 24.5 1.8 4.3 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 0.0 0.3 0.1 -2.7 29.0 30.1 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 0.7 1.0 0.5 -2.8 27.4 28.6 1.9 4.5 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 -3.1 24.6 26.4 -1.6 0.6 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.6 -3.3 22.6 24.2 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 -1.1 -2.0 -2.8 -4.2 13.4 15.3 1.5 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -2.9 26.9 27.9 0.6 3.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -3.8 -4.1 -1.7 -3.7 16.1 18.3 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 0.3 1.1 -0.2 -3.0 25.3 26.6 2.4 5.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -3.3 21.3 22.9 1.7 4.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.4 -3.4 21.3 22.9 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 -0.2 -0.8 -1.7 -3.8 16.5 18.5 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -0.9 -1.7 -1.9 -4.1 14.4 16.4 1.7 4.2 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 1.4 1.7 1.2 -2.5 29.4 30.3 2.3 5.0 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.3 0.5 -1.5 -3.0 26.6 28.3 1.5 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 -0.1 -0.3 -2.0 -3.7 19.0 20.7 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.8 0.6 0.4 -2.1 33.2 34.1 0.6 2.9 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -0.9 -3.5 19.0 20.6 0.4 2.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.5 0.7 0.6 -2.4 30.8 31.8 1.1 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -3.4 -4.7 -2.7 -4.2 11.1 13.2 -0.9 1.3 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 0.3 0.8 0.0 -3.0 25.3 26.6 2.1 4.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 1.4 1.1 -1.8 35.5 36.3 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.4 1.0 1.3 -2.1 33.0 34.0 1.0 3.4 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 1.5 1.7 0.6 -2.9 25.7 27.0 3.0 5.7 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -3.2 22.9 24.6 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -0.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.5 8.8 11.1 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -3.4 21.6 23.0 1.8 4.4 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.1 -2.1 -3.1 25.5 27.3 2.4 4.8 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 -2.3 -2.8 -1.6 -3.8 16.1 17.9 0.1 2.3 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -3.0 26.7 27.8 0.7 3.2 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------