***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.2 3.4 0.2 51.7 52.3 2.3 4.0 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.6 3.8 3.6 0.7 57.2 57.0 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.0 5.0 3.9 0.5 54.9 55.0 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.7 0.4 1.5 0.2 52.4 52.5 -2.0 0.2 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.3 2.0 0.1 50.7 51.1 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.6 1.1 -0.4 45.3 46.4 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.2 3.3 0.6 55.7 55.8 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.5 -0.4 1.6 -0.3 46.0 47.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.5 5.3 3.0 0.2 52.1 52.4 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.0 2.4 -0.1 48.8 49.6 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.1 1.8 -0.2 47.9 48.7 2.5 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.4 1.7 -0.4 45.5 46.6 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.4 1.2 -0.6 43.1 44.5 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.4 3.8 0.5 55.3 55.2 2.4 4.7 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.5 1.8 0.4 54.7 54.2 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.4 1.4 -0.3 46.2 47.2 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.1 3.7 3.7 1.1 60.8 60.1 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.2 2.4 -0.2 47.9 48.8 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 3.9 4.3 3.9 0.8 58.0 57.7 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.4 0.6 -0.6 42.4 44.2 -0.6 1.1 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.9 3.4 0.3 53.6 53.7 2.7 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 3.8 4.9 4.3 1.5 64.4 63.1 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.8 4.2 4.3 0.8 58.6 58.1 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.6 3.6 0.3 52.8 53.1 3.0 5.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.8 2.1 0.2 52.2 52.5 1.9 3.6 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.5 1.1 -0.6 42.6 44.0 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.3 2.7 0.1 50.9 51.6 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 5.1 4.9 1.6 0.3 52.6 52.6 2.2 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.8 1.6 1.6 -0.4 44.6 46.1 0.3 2.1 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.5 3.6 0.5 55.1 55.2 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------