***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.8 3.7 0.2 51.9 52.7 1.9 3.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.6 3.6 3.8 0.5 55.1 55.7 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.5 4.0 0.3 53.0 53.7 2.3 4.2 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.1 -1.1 1.2 -0.3 47.0 48.7 -2.9 -0.7 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.0 1.9 -0.3 47.1 48.9 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.2 0.9 -0.6 43.7 45.7 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.2 3.2 3.6 0.5 54.7 55.3 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -1.5 1.5 -0.5 45.2 47.3 -2.8 -1.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.9 3.0 -0.1 49.3 50.6 3.0 4.9 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.0 2.2 -0.3 46.8 48.7 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.9 1.8 -0.4 45.5 47.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.0 1.7 -0.5 44.6 46.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 3.6 1.2 -0.7 43.1 45.2 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.0 3.7 0.2 51.6 53.0 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.3 1.5 -0.1 48.7 49.8 1.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.3 1.3 -0.6 43.8 45.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.3 3.7 0.6 56.1 56.7 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.5 2.7 2.1 -0.4 46.6 48.6 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.0 3.9 4.1 0.5 55.1 55.7 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.7 1.6 0.4 -0.5 45.2 47.3 0.1 2.1 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.6 3.5 0.1 51.0 52.0 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 0.7 57.3 57.8 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.8 4.3 0.5 54.7 55.4 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.7 3.4 0.0 49.8 51.4 2.7 4.7 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.2 2.1 -0.1 49.2 50.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.8 1.1 -0.5 44.5 46.2 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.9 2.9 0.0 50.4 51.5 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.7 1.4 -0.3 46.9 48.5 1.8 4.2 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.8 1.6 1.4 -0.5 45.6 47.7 0.1 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.4 3.9 0.4 54.2 54.8 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------