***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 4.2 3.5 3.0 -0.5 43.7 45.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 3.6 3.2 3.2 -0.1 49.1 50.4 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 4.8 4.3 3.5 -0.2 46.9 48.6 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 0.1 -0.8 0.7 -0.7 40.5 42.5 -1.4 -0.2 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 4.7 3.6 1.4 -0.8 39.6 41.7 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.8 0.4 -1.4 31.1 33.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 3.2 2.7 2.9 -0.2 47.5 49.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -1.8 1.1 -1.1 33.9 36.9 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 5.5 4.6 2.6 -0.5 43.0 44.9 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.6 1.9 -0.8 38.2 40.7 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.7 1.4 -1.0 36.8 39.2 3.4 4.6 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.2 3.8 1.2 -1.1 33.7 36.5 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.1 0.8 -1.4 30.7 33.5 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 5.4 4.8 3.4 -0.2 46.6 48.2 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.3 3.4 1.2 -0.5 43.1 44.5 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.9 0.9 -1.2 34.2 36.7 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.2 3.1 3.2 0.2 52.4 53.4 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.1 1.8 -0.9 36.5 39.4 1.9 2.8 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 3.9 3.6 3.5 0.0 50.2 51.5 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.3 29.0 32.8 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 4.9 4.3 3.0 -0.4 44.6 46.3 3.5 4.7 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.0 3.7 0.4 55.4 56.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 3.8 3.6 3.8 0.1 51.2 52.3 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.6 4.7 3.1 -0.5 43.4 45.5 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 3.7 2.9 1.7 -0.6 41.7 43.7 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.0 0.5 -1.4 29.3 32.3 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 4.4 3.6 2.3 -0.6 41.6 43.8 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 5.1 3.9 1.0 -0.7 40.8 42.6 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.5 0.9 1.0 -1.1 33.1 36.2 0.9 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 3.4 3.0 3.1 -0.2 47.1 48.7 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------