***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 7.2 9.3 15.1 166.9 81.1 69.0 2.3 3.9 6.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 9.7 11.5 13.6 148.5 77.3 65.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 11.4 15.5 15.7 169.4 82.0 69.7 2.7 5.4 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.0 13.7 15.7 149.9 77.9 66.6 3.3 5.9 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 12.8 17.2 16.8 166.2 81.3 70.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.0 15.8 14.5 168.3 81.2 73.1 2.6 5.4 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.6 11.2 13.4 144.1 76.3 65.6 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 15.3 23.9 19.8 200.0 86.8 78.5 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 9.8 15.6 18.8 185.1 85.5 74.7 2.5 4.7 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.3 20.9 20.4 197.4 86.8 78.5 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 10.5 15.5 16.9 179.2 83.4 73.6 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 11.8 19.1 16.7 188.7 85.0 75.6 2.9 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 12.1 18.2 15.9 178.7 83.2 75.8 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 14.1 20.5 19.0 185.1 85.2 75.1 4.6 7.7 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.5 12.3 118.1 69.7 59.6 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 9.8 14.6 15.4 170.5 81.8 72.1 1.8 4.1 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.4 11.7 13.0 138.4 74.9 65.3 3.1 5.5 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 11.2 17.9 22.3 204.7 87.8 79.9 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 10.0 11.9 14.0 152.4 78.3 66.2 3.2 5.5 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 15.2 24.4 24.8 196.2 85.9 77.8 3.2 6.6 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 11.4 17.1 17.2 178.8 84.0 71.9 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 10.3 11.3 13.4 137.3 74.7 64.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 10.4 13.0 15.0 159.7 80.0 67.6 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 11.4 16.6 19.7 190.3 85.9 76.2 4.0 6.4 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 10.5 13.6 16.7 161.7 80.3 68.8 3.3 5.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.3 15.6 14.9 173.4 82.0 74.6 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.4 11.1 16.3 166.9 81.2 70.1 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 9.0 10.2 13.5 136.8 74.3 63.3 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 17.1 26.9 23.5 203.0 87.3 79.5 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 9.4 11.5 14.1 155.1 78.8 66.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------