***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9.9 10.1 11.5 124.0 71.3 59.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 8.2 9.5 11.8 140.4 75.4 61.0 2.1 4.1 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.5 11.8 125.0 71.4 58.6 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.2 11.1 114.5 68.4 57.4 4.5 7.9 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.7 15.0 11.8 118.0 69.3 58.2 4.6 8.5 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.6 12.4 10.7 109.7 66.2 56.3 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.7 10.0 11.6 139.6 75.2 60.6 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.5 18.3 12.8 111.9 66.9 55.0 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.5 12.7 119.1 69.5 58.1 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.5 13.2 115.5 68.1 56.5 4.4 7.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.9 12.0 11.1 115.2 68.1 57.1 4.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.3 10.9 110.8 66.5 55.0 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.5 12.7 10.9 109.5 66.0 56.0 3.6 7.4 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 16.0 17.9 15.3 133.5 73.6 59.8 5.0 8.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.6 9.7 101.9 64.5 52.8 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.7 10.2 111.9 66.9 56.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 8.7 10.0 11.6 141.6 75.7 60.3 2.4 4.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.8 14.9 116.0 68.3 56.5 4.8 7.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.1 10.4 12.2 140.1 75.4 60.9 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.2 17.3 110.7 66.7 54.4 3.9 7.0 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.6 12.2 121.3 70.2 58.2 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 9.6 11.6 12.6 145.8 76.8 61.1 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 9.4 10.9 12.9 139.9 75.3 60.9 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 15.2 14.0 123.2 70.6 57.8 4.9 8.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.3 12.9 124.6 71.3 59.5 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.0 11.0 105.1 64.9 54.3 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.3 12.6 126.6 71.9 59.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.0 10.1 109.0 66.6 55.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 17.8 16.3 116.0 68.3 56.2 6.1 10.7 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.8 9.7 11.7 134.9 74.1 60.4 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------