***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 32.3 32.6 47.4 120.5 69.7 62.5 15.5 22.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 34.0 35.9 46.5 125.9 72.0 64.3 15.8 23.1 31.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 44.8 46.7 49.1 124.1 71.7 63.9 22.0 31.3 41.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 40.0 47.9 49.7 117.4 68.4 60.5 26.2 35.6 46.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 47.4 50.9 53.1 125.8 73.3 64.5 24.6 34.0 44.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 40.1 43.5 49.7 123.6 72.2 64.4 20.1 28.6 38.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 32.5 33.5 46.0 124.5 71.4 63.9 15.5 22.3 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 64.8 76.1 60.1 136.1 79.0 68.7 34.4 46.6 60.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 38.7 42.9 57.2 130.6 76.0 67.4 17.9 25.8 35.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 46.4 54.3 61.5 135.4 78.7 69.3 23.0 32.0 42.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 40.7 46.3 51.9 130.8 76.2 66.4 19.2 27.6 37.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 41.0 49.5 51.4 132.7 77.4 67.1 16.7 26.0 37.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 44.5 48.9 51.2 129.7 75.7 67.2 21.6 30.5 40.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 57.2 64.8 62.1 134.6 77.4 69.7 32.4 42.5 54.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 32.3 33.1 42.2 100.8 58.9 52.6 16.8 26.9 39.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 39.5 43.3 48.8 127.3 74.4 65.2 18.2 26.6 36.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 31.9 34.2 45.9 126.6 72.2 64.7 14.3 21.3 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 43.1 52.1 67.8 136.2 79.1 70.3 20.7 29.5 39.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 37.3 39.9 47.5 127.2 72.8 64.8 19.1 26.6 35.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 47.0 55.6 76.9 131.5 76.4 67.0 21.4 31.9 44.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 42.2 44.4 52.6 126.2 73.2 64.9 21.5 29.7 39.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 36.8 39.6 48.5 128.3 73.1 65.1 16.8 24.7 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 36.7 40.3 50.5 129.7 74.4 66.2 18.3 25.7 34.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 48.2 54.3 60.7 133.5 77.1 69.0 27.6 36.0 45.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 35.8 44.7 54.0 121.5 70.3 62.9 23.2 31.7 41.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 36.2 39.2 49.4 125.2 73.0 64.4 15.8 24.0 33.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 36.4 37.7 52.3 123.1 71.0 63.9 17.6 25.2 34.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 29.1 34.2 45.1 111.5 64.9 57.3 15.5 24.1 35.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 66.3 78.2 72.1 134.5 78.2 69.4 34.8 47.8 62.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 34.5 35.5 46.5 123.8 71.2 63.6 16.3 23.5 32.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------