***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 10.5 8.2 4.5 84.0 82.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 7.6 8.9 8.2 4.7 83.9 82.8 0.9 3.4 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 9.0 10.4 8.6 4.6 83.5 82.2 1.8 4.5 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 4.3 5.6 5.6 4.4 83.8 81.9 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 8.3 9.7 6.9 4.4 83.9 82.5 1.6 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 7.3 9.4 6.3 4.3 86.8 84.7 1.5 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 7.0 8.5 7.9 4.7 84.3 83.1 0.5 3.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 2.3 3.8 7.2 4.7 87.9 86.3 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 9.6 11.4 8.1 4.6 84.3 82.9 2.3 5.1 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 8.0 10.1 8.0 4.9 86.6 85.0 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 8.5 10.0 7.1 4.3 83.5 82.2 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 8.9 10.5 6.8 4.1 84.5 83.2 2.1 4.7 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 8.0 9.6 6.8 3.9 83.4 82.0 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 9.8 11.3 9.2 4.9 83.6 82.3 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 8.0 9.5 6.4 4.5 83.9 82.2 1.7 4.1 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 8.9 10.3 6.5 4.0 82.7 81.4 2.1 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 6.8 8.2 8.0 4.8 84.3 83.1 0.5 2.8 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 5.6 7.3 8.0 4.9 87.2 85.8 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 8.2 9.5 8.4 4.7 83.4 82.3 1.0 3.7 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 4.9 7.7 6.6 4.8 90.9 89.4 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 8.8 10.4 8.4 4.6 83.9 82.5 2.0 4.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 7.8 9.2 8.1 4.6 83.5 82.3 1.0 3.6 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 7.5 8.7 8.5 4.6 82.9 81.7 0.9 3.4 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 10.3 12.0 8.8 4.8 84.6 83.2 3.0 5.7 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 7.1 9.0 7.5 4.8 86.1 84.5 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 7.2 8.8 5.9 3.6 85.6 84.1 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 8.6 10.4 8.0 4.6 85.0 83.6 1.8 4.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 8.8 10.2 6.1 4.4 82.8 81.1 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 6.4 8.8 7.4 4.8 88.6 87.5 0.1 2.4 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.5 8.9 8.3 4.7 83.8 82.7 0.7 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------