***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 4.7 6.2 2.4 74.3 71.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.8 6.2 2.7 75.9 73.0 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 6.3 7.0 6.4 2.4 73.4 70.4 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.5 3.1 4.2 2.4 74.0 71.5 -2.1 0.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.5 4.8 2.3 73.0 70.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.4 4.1 2.3 73.5 70.8 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 4.9 5.6 6.0 2.6 76.1 73.3 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.8 4.2 1.9 71.2 68.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.7 5.6 2.2 72.0 69.0 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.5 4.9 2.0 70.9 68.1 2.1 4.1 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.9 4.6 2.2 72.8 70.0 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.4 4.5 2.1 72.2 69.5 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.7 4.3 2.2 73.5 70.9 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.5 5.9 2.0 70.5 67.4 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.0 4.3 2.5 74.0 71.8 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.3 4.4 2.3 73.4 70.7 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.8 5.5 6.0 2.7 76.3 73.3 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.0 4.2 4.8 1.8 69.7 66.9 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.5 6.2 6.3 2.6 75.2 72.1 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.4 3.3 1.9 71.3 68.7 -0.3 1.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.5 7.1 6.0 2.3 72.8 69.8 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.5 6.2 6.1 2.6 75.1 71.9 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.9 6.4 2.4 73.8 70.6 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.8 5.8 2.0 70.5 67.4 3.0 5.2 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.8 4.9 2.3 74.2 71.5 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.5 4.0 2.1 73.3 70.8 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.8 5.6 2.3 74.4 71.6 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.8 4.4 2.5 73.7 71.3 2.1 4.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.1 4.3 4.2 1.8 70.1 67.4 0.4 2.2 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.7 6.2 2.6 75.3 72.4 1.2 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------