***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 6.1 5.8 1.8 69.4 64.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.4 5.8 2.0 71.3 65.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.3 6.0 1.8 69.0 64.0 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.2 1.0 3.6 1.6 66.9 62.6 -2.6 -0.8 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.6 4.2 1.6 66.4 62.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.5 3.4 1.4 64.6 60.8 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.2 5.7 2.0 71.4 65.7 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.0 -0.3 3.8 1.4 65.5 61.5 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.3 5.0 1.6 66.5 61.8 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.9 4.4 1.5 66.0 61.7 3.1 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.0 4.1 1.5 66.0 61.8 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.9 4.1 1.4 65.5 61.4 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.6 3.8 1.4 65.6 61.6 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 8.1 8.2 5.7 1.8 68.5 63.5 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.3 3.8 1.6 67.1 63.0 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.1 3.8 1.4 65.5 61.4 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.0 5.7 2.0 71.6 66.0 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.3 4.4 1.6 66.5 62.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.7 6.0 2.0 70.9 65.5 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.1 2.8 1.5 66.1 62.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.1 5.5 1.7 67.3 62.6 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.0 5.9 1.9 71.1 65.7 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.8 6.1 1.9 70.1 64.8 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.6 5.5 1.7 67.6 62.8 3.3 5.4 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.6 4.3 1.7 68.8 63.9 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.8 3.5 1.3 64.8 61.2 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.4 5.1 1.8 69.6 64.4 2.0 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.1 3.8 1.6 66.1 62.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.5 3.8 1.6 66.9 62.6 -0.4 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.3 5.9 1.9 70.8 65.4 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------