***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 9999.0 0.5 1.9 19.9 14.6 14.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 1.5 1.0 2.1 23.3 17.8 16.9 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 1.7 1.1 2.0 20.6 17.1 16.0 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 1.5 0.8 1.9 17.2 10.3 10.5 3.0 5.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 1.9 1.1 2.0 18.9 13.1 12.8 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 1.5 0.8 1.5 15.8 14.1 12.9 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.2 23.9 17.6 16.9 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.0 19.1 14.8 13.4 3.9 7.1 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 1.5 0.8 2.1 20.1 13.2 13.0 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 1.5 0.8 2.3 21.0 15.3 14.2 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.8 18.5 14.9 13.8 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 1.5 0.8 1.7 17.6 13.4 12.4 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 1.6 0.7 1.7 17.2 13.1 12.4 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.1 2.9 25.0 21.6 19.3 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.8 2.1 19.5 17.8 17.0 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.6 16.5 12.8 12.2 2.0 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.6 1.3 2.2 24.7 20.4 19.2 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.0 2.5 21.3 15.6 14.4 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.0 2.2 23.4 18.7 17.4 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 1.6 0.9 2.6 19.1 15.0 13.7 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 1.5 0.9 1.9 18.9 14.7 14.0 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.4 2.5 26.1 20.7 19.4 2.5 4.3 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 1.6 1.3 2.4 23.8 20.4 18.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 2.4 2.0 2.5 22.5 19.2 17.3 3.5 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 1.6 1.1 2.1 20.0 15.0 14.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.5 14.6 11.9 10.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.2 21.3 14.9 14.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.6 1.9 18.3 14.3 14.0 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 2.6 1.6 2.6 20.8 14.6 13.6 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.4 0.8 2.1 22.2 16.4 15.7 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------