***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 1.3 7.1 66.9 46.8 37.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.8 6.8 67.8 49.2 39.2 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.3 67.0 47.5 38.2 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.2 7.7 64.4 46.4 36.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.8 65.2 46.2 37.1 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.5 8.5 74.5 51.4 39.4 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.7 2.9 6.7 66.4 47.8 38.3 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 7.8 8.4 68.8 48.8 38.2 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.3 8.3 66.8 45.6 36.9 2.1 3.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.2 8.8 69.1 47.7 38.4 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.7 7.2 64.8 46.1 36.8 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.1 7.0 66.8 47.6 36.5 1.7 3.4 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.0 7.6 72.0 50.0 38.1 2.2 4.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.2 9.2 73.5 51.8 42.4 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.0 7.6 63.9 48.7 35.8 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.5 7.1 66.5 46.9 36.4 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.3 6.7 70.9 50.5 40.4 1.8 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.9 9.7 70.1 48.6 39.1 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.1 7.0 69.4 49.8 39.8 1.9 4.2 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.4 11.1 71.3 50.1 39.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.6 7.8 68.2 47.2 38.2 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.8 7.3 76.0 52.7 41.9 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.6 7.5 70.9 50.1 40.5 1.7 3.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.4 8.8 70.4 49.2 39.9 2.4 4.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.1 8.0 66.2 46.1 37.2 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.5 3.1 7.8 73.8 52.1 37.9 1.7 2.9 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.7 3.1 7.7 67.6 46.4 37.3 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.0 3.9 7.6 64.3 47.5 36.0 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.4 10.2 69.9 49.0 39.3 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.1 6.9 66.3 47.8 38.1 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------