***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 6.4 9.3 107.6 65.7 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.3 8.1 106.9 65.5 52.2 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.3 11.0 9.6 111.9 67.0 55.2 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.6 10.8 112.6 67.1 54.8 4.0 7.1 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.6 11.1 120.0 69.7 58.2 2.9 5.4 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.9 10.0 11.7 123.3 71.0 58.6 2.8 5.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.5 8.1 107.8 65.5 51.9 2.3 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.2 15.0 12.0 125.0 71.4 60.5 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.0 11.4 122.4 70.4 58.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.6 12.1 124.7 71.1 60.3 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 9.1 10.5 122.9 70.8 59.8 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.0 10.5 123.5 71.0 59.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.1 11.3 128.9 72.5 60.8 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.3 17.1 11.4 113.2 67.2 57.0 5.8 10.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 11.2 10.3 107.9 66.0 51.2 2.5 5.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.0 7.8 10.6 125.5 71.4 59.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.2 7.6 104.1 64.7 50.4 2.0 4.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.7 13.5 126.4 71.6 61.2 3.9 6.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.3 8.5 107.8 65.9 53.3 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 11.4 12.3 16.3 132.1 73.4 63.0 4.1 6.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.8 10.6 115.9 68.3 56.7 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 8.1 105.5 65.3 51.4 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.3 9.3 110.4 66.5 55.0 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.8 14.6 11.8 118.1 68.9 58.6 4.9 8.6 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.0 10.7 111.3 67.0 56.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 7.8 10.8 118.7 69.7 58.3 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.0 9.6 10.0 109.3 66.2 55.2 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.7 10.6 113.2 67.5 54.0 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 17.5 18.9 14.6 129.1 72.4 62.0 6.2 10.4 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.3 8.4 8.5 108.7 66.0 53.2 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------