***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 3.4 6.6 69.7 50.9 40.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.8 6.1 67.4 49.9 39.5 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.5 6.9 69.9 50.9 41.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.7 7.3 65.6 51.2 41.5 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.1 7.4 67.8 49.8 40.7 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.5 7.6 74.7 52.9 42.6 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.0 68.7 50.6 39.9 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.3 12.9 8.2 75.3 51.9 42.6 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.9 8.0 71.9 51.1 41.6 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.8 8.7 75.2 51.7 42.5 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.8 6.9 68.3 49.3 40.2 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.9 6.7 70.1 49.9 40.9 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.2 7.0 70.9 50.4 40.9 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.3 8.6 71.2 49.6 40.6 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.9 7.6 70.7 55.1 42.3 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.6 6.6 66.8 49.1 39.9 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.9 68.5 50.4 39.2 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.1 9.9 77.9 52.3 43.1 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.4 6.3 68.0 50.0 39.7 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.9 11.1 80.2 54.3 44.1 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.1 7.3 69.5 50.6 41.3 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.0 6.5 69.1 50.9 39.6 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.1 6.9 69.0 49.8 39.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.1 8.7 73.2 50.8 41.5 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.5 7.4 66.6 50.2 41.0 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.6 6.9 71.1 51.5 41.5 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.2 7.1 69.4 51.0 41.2 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.6 7.2 67.2 52.1 41.4 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 12.4 10.5 79.1 53.0 43.5 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.2 6.3 68.8 50.5 40.1 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------