***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 17.4 24.9 65.0 29.4 30.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.9 23.1 64.6 29.8 30.5 15.0 21.9 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 19.0 19.9 25.8 65.9 30.5 31.2 21.2 30.0 40.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 22.6 23.3 27.7 63.4 28.8 29.6 25.4 34.9 45.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 22.0 21.8 28.3 66.2 29.4 30.9 23.6 32.7 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 17.2 20.7 29.3 72.5 35.5 34.6 19.5 28.0 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 12.8 13.6 22.9 64.9 29.7 30.5 14.7 21.0 28.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 31.6 34.4 30.5 70.5 34.0 33.8 33.7 46.0 59.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 17.0 16.1 29.8 68.6 30.0 31.9 17.4 25.1 34.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.2 22.6 31.8 71.0 32.8 33.8 22.6 31.6 41.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 16.8 17.5 26.5 66.6 30.2 31.4 18.8 27.1 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 14.5 15.6 25.9 67.7 31.5 31.7 16.3 25.5 36.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 19.1 21.8 27.5 71.0 34.4 33.8 21.3 30.0 40.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 29.2 30.8 32.0 69.4 31.8 32.8 31.4 41.4 52.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 13.9 17.3 27.5 64.3 35.4 32.7 15.9 25.9 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 16.1 17.2 25.8 67.1 31.1 31.6 18.1 26.2 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.8 22.4 65.4 30.8 31.4 13.5 20.0 27.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 20.2 20.9 35.6 72.7 34.3 35.0 20.3 28.9 39.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 16.2 17.4 24.0 65.3 30.7 31.1 18.2 25.5 33.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 20.0 23.5 41.2 74.0 38.1 36.7 20.7 30.7 42.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 19.6 19.4 27.7 66.8 30.5 31.6 20.5 28.6 37.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 14.2 15.2 24.3 67.4 31.1 31.7 15.9 23.4 32.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 16.1 17.3 26.1 66.6 32.4 32.4 17.5 24.6 33.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 26.3 26.7 31.7 69.8 32.7 33.6 26.9 35.4 44.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 20.0 20.4 28.2 65.0 29.9 30.9 21.9 30.6 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 13.7 16.2 27.0 68.2 34.3 32.6 15.5 23.5 33.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 14.9 15.6 27.1 65.8 29.3 30.5 17.0 24.6 33.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 12.8 14.6 27.2 64.6 32.4 31.5 15.0 23.4 34.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 34.0 35.7 38.0 73.2 35.2 35.4 34.1 46.7 61.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 13.4 14.3 23.7 64.6 29.6 30.3 15.7 22.5 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------