***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.2 0.0 49.9 50.0 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -2.9 -1.9 0.3 52.7 52.0 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -1.0 -2.1 0.2 51.8 52.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.7 -6.2 -4.9 0.3 53.3 53.6 -8.5 -6.5 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -3.1 -4.7 0.0 50.1 52.3 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -5.9 -4.2 -7.1 -0.4 46.4 49.9 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -2.9 -1.9 0.2 52.1 51.4 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -9.9 -8.6 -7.0 -0.9 41.6 45.9 -9.5 -7.7 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.5 -4.3 -0.2 48.1 51.1 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -3.3 -6.2 -0.7 43.5 47.3 -4.2 -2.7 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -4.9 -3.2 -5.6 -0.3 47.5 50.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -4.0 -6.4 -0.7 43.1 47.4 -5.1 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.7 -6.8 -0.9 41.6 46.5 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.3 -4.3 -0.2 47.7 49.8 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -2.3 -3.3 0.9 59.1 58.1 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -2.5 -6.1 -0.3 47.3 50.4 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -3.0 -1.7 0.4 53.5 52.5 -4.7 -3.3 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -6.2 -5.0 -7.1 -1.0 40.5 44.8 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.7 -2.0 0.3 52.9 52.4 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -10.1 -8.8 -8.2 -1.3 38.2 42.8 -9.5 -7.4 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.6 -3.0 0.0 49.5 51.5 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.8 -1.8 0.4 54.2 53.4 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 52.3 52.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -3.2 -4.9 -0.4 45.9 48.8 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.7 -3.6 0.0 50.1 51.0 -4.2 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.6 -6.7 -0.8 42.2 46.8 -4.5 -2.9 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -2.6 -2.7 -0.1 48.9 49.5 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -3.5 -4.7 0.5 54.9 55.0 -5.6 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -7.4 -6.2 -7.4 -1.2 39.1 43.4 -6.9 -5.1 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.0 0.3 52.5 52.0 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------