***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 4.7 4.4 3.9 0.0 50.1 50.0 2.0 4.4 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 3.6 3.6 4.4 0.2 51.5 51.4 0.9 3.4 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 4.9 4.3 4.5 -0.2 48.4 48.5 1.8 4.5 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 53.9 53.7 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 4.5 3.4 2.2 -0.5 45.2 45.5 1.6 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.4 2.7 0.7 -1.0 41.9 42.3 1.5 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 3.1 3.0 4.0 0.0 50.4 50.4 0.5 3.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -1.9 0.9 -1.7 35.1 36.2 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 5.6 4.5 3.4 -0.4 46.3 46.5 2.3 5.1 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 2.3 1.7 -1.5 37.3 38.2 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 4.9 3.4 2.6 -0.7 43.8 44.2 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.6 3.2 1.8 -1.1 40.1 40.8 2.1 4.7 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.0 2.6 2.0 -1.3 39.0 39.8 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 5.7 4.7 4.5 -0.3 47.2 47.4 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.5 6.2 4.2 1.7 65.6 64.6 1.7 4.1 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 5.3 3.9 1.9 -0.7 44.2 44.6 2.1 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 3.1 3.3 4.3 0.3 53.1 53.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.2 0.6 1.1 -1.9 33.9 35.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 4.0 3.8 4.6 0.1 50.8 50.7 1.0 3.7 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -1.7 -1.2 -0.4 -2.2 31.5 32.8 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 5.0 4.2 4.2 -0.3 47.2 47.4 2.0 4.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 3.9 4.1 4.8 0.3 53.4 53.3 1.0 3.6 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 3.8 3.3 4.6 0.0 49.6 49.6 0.9 3.4 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.6 4.3 3.5 -1.0 40.9 41.6 3.0 5.7 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 3.8 3.2 3.0 -0.2 47.9 48.0 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.3 0.5 -1.6 36.3 37.1 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 4.7 3.9 3.4 -0.3 46.8 46.9 1.8 4.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 5.3 5.8 2.6 0.7 56.3 55.8 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.1 0.6 -1.9 33.4 34.6 0.1 2.4 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 3.4 3.3 4.3 0.0 50.5 50.4 0.7 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------