***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.2 4.5 0.3 54.2 53.6 2.8 3.9 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.9 4.8 0.5 56.7 55.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.7 4.9 0.2 52.5 52.1 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.3 0.4 2.1 0.7 58.8 57.0 -1.3 -0.2 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.4 2.9 0.1 51.6 51.4 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.6 -0.5 43.3 44.8 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.4 4.6 0.4 56.0 55.1 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.5 1.9 -0.7 40.1 42.4 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.2 3.8 0.0 50.7 50.6 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.8 2.5 -0.6 41.2 43.3 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.4 3.0 -0.1 48.2 48.8 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.5 2.6 -0.4 44.6 46.0 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.8 2.2 -0.6 41.3 43.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.0 4.4 -0.1 48.9 48.9 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.3 3.7 1.3 66.5 63.7 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.8 2.4 -0.2 47.8 48.4 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.5 4.7 0.6 57.7 56.5 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.2 2.3 -0.9 37.4 40.4 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.1 4.9 0.4 55.5 54.7 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.0 0.6 0.7 -1.0 35.4 38.9 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.8 4.4 0.1 51.3 51.1 3.5 4.7 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.3 5.0 0.5 57.5 56.2 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.8 5.0 0.2 53.2 52.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.8 3.9 -0.4 44.3 45.6 3.9 5.3 6.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.7 3.2 0.2 53.3 52.8 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.7 1.7 -0.6 41.6 43.7 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.3 4.0 0.1 52.0 51.8 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.5 2.7 0.7 59.4 57.7 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.1 1.7 -1.0 36.1 39.5 0.9 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.7 4.7 0.4 55.8 54.9 2.0 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------