***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.0 7.5 78.2 55.0 45.7 2.0 3.4 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.3 6.6 72.1 52.3 43.3 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.9 7.8 81.7 56.3 46.9 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.4 7.9 69.9 51.8 41.9 3.0 5.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.2 10.8 89.2 60.1 50.0 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 8.5 78.7 56.4 45.8 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.2 6.7 74.9 53.7 44.2 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.4 12.3 97.1 63.0 53.2 3.9 7.1 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.4 10.2 89.6 60.0 49.9 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.9 13.2 102.1 64.4 54.0 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.0 10.9 90.7 60.6 50.4 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 9.8 86.6 59.4 49.6 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.5 11.0 88.4 60.0 50.3 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.4 10.9 89.6 59.2 50.2 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.3 58.4 48.7 35.9 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 9.5 80.7 57.0 47.0 2.0 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.6 6.2 70.2 51.7 43.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.8 13.8 103.8 65.0 54.2 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.5 6.8 72.8 52.5 43.9 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.8 14.6 100.0 63.9 54.7 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 8.8 84.1 57.9 48.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.5 6.5 69.7 51.4 43.7 2.5 4.3 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.4 77.1 54.3 45.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.9 11.0 93.8 61.2 51.2 3.5 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 9.3 83.7 57.3 47.3 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 9.0 80.6 57.4 47.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.6 8.1 78.7 55.0 45.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.9 67.8 51.9 40.3 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.1 14.5 104.2 65.2 55.0 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.4 6.8 75.0 53.5 44.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------