***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 1.4 2.1 4.7 43.8 36.7 27.3 1.9 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.4 2.0 3.8 37.9 33.7 24.3 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 1.7 2.5 5.0 45.7 36.7 28.0 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.4 4.9 6.7 59.1 45.1 31.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.1 54.4 42.0 31.5 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.1 6.9 66.1 47.8 36.9 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.2 1.8 3.9 39.0 34.6 24.2 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.6 6.7 7.4 60.4 44.8 32.7 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 3.2 7.1 61.1 44.3 33.8 2.1 3.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.4 63.0 46.4 33.9 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.9 3.5 6.7 59.5 44.4 33.6 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 1.4 2.6 6.5 56.6 42.5 31.7 1.7 3.4 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 1.9 3.1 6.5 56.2 42.5 32.9 2.2 4.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 2.8 4.7 7.6 57.5 43.1 33.5 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.6 3.9 6.5 60.9 48.1 30.6 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.2 6.6 58.5 44.0 34.4 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.9 3.9 38.9 34.5 24.3 1.8 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.8 8.4 66.1 47.8 36.7 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 1.4 2.1 4.1 40.0 34.3 25.6 1.9 4.2 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.2 9.1 58.0 42.9 32.3 3.0 5.4 8.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.8 2.9 6.3 55.4 41.0 32.0 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 1.7 2.2 4.0 37.6 33.1 24.3 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.9 4.8 43.8 35.7 27.7 1.7 3.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.9 7.6 61.2 45.3 35.4 2.4 4.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.4 2.1 5.5 46.9 38.6 28.9 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 1.3 2.3 6.3 54.6 42.0 31.0 1.7 2.9 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.4 2.1 4.9 43.5 36.7 27.4 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.8 3.8 6.4 60.7 46.6 31.2 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.9 6.6 8.6 62.8 45.3 34.9 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.7 3.9 38.6 34.2 24.9 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------