***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.6 10.4 97.5 62.1 43.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.4 8.8 95.7 61.3 40.8 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.7 10.7 100.9 63.0 43.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.9 11.4 90.3 59.0 41.9 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.2 11.2 11.8 95.1 60.5 43.6 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.5 10.5 92.3 60.3 45.7 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.4 8.2 92.3 60.3 41.4 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.0 15.5 11.9 91.8 58.9 43.3 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.5 12.8 99.0 61.7 44.8 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.6 13.0 97.6 61.1 44.6 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.3 11.2 93.7 59.9 44.0 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.9 10.5 90.7 58.9 43.6 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.1 10.9 92.6 59.9 45.9 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.1 13.8 107.5 64.8 45.9 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.9 10.7 87.2 59.0 40.9 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.1 10.8 92.2 59.6 44.9 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.6 7.7 85.9 58.1 40.6 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 10.7 14.0 101.8 62.6 46.0 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.4 9.4 99.3 62.5 41.3 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.0 15.3 92.2 59.0 44.4 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.9 11.9 99.7 62.3 45.0 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.1 8.3 88.5 58.6 40.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.6 10.5 103.5 63.8 42.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.0 13.3 106.4 64.4 45.6 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.7 11.9 97.4 61.8 45.5 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.4 9.7 86.9 58.5 44.5 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 7.5 11.0 98.4 62.5 45.5 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.0 10.6 87.4 58.5 41.5 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 15.6 14.6 100.3 61.9 45.8 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.1 6.0 9.3 97.7 62.1 41.3 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------