***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 13.3 16.3 29.0 69.7 36.9 34.5 14.9 21.6 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 13.2 15.4 24.9 66.4 33.9 32.5 15.0 21.9 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 18.1 23.1 30.0 71.6 37.0 34.4 21.2 30.0 40.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 21.9 26.1 33.3 69.6 34.4 32.5 25.4 34.9 45.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 21.5 26.6 36.1 75.4 38.6 36.2 23.6 32.7 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 18.9 23.3 33.7 77.1 40.7 37.6 19.5 28.0 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 12.8 15.3 24.6 66.7 34.5 33.2 14.7 21.0 28.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 31.1 39.4 40.3 78.9 41.1 38.3 33.7 46.0 59.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 15.5 20.6 38.1 78.4 40.2 37.3 17.4 25.1 34.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 21.0 27.6 41.8 82.0 42.8 39.4 22.6 31.6 41.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 17.2 21.9 36.4 77.2 39.6 37.4 18.8 27.1 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 14.8 19.2 34.8 75.3 38.5 36.6 16.3 25.5 36.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.3 24.8 36.8 77.6 40.4 38.3 21.3 30.0 40.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 28.0 35.7 41.1 79.7 40.6 37.2 31.4 41.4 52.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 12.8 16.6 28.9 64.7 34.3 30.9 15.9 25.9 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 15.9 20.4 34.7 75.2 38.2 36.4 18.1 26.2 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 12.1 13.3 23.4 63.6 32.3 31.8 13.5 20.0 27.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 18.4 25.9 45.5 85.0 44.3 40.2 20.3 28.9 39.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 16.2 18.9 26.2 67.7 34.6 32.7 18.2 25.5 33.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.0 25.4 51.4 80.0 41.4 38.5 20.7 30.7 42.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 18.0 23.2 34.4 75.4 39.0 36.2 20.5 28.6 37.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.2 24.5 63.2 31.3 31.2 15.9 23.4 32.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 15.4 18.7 29.3 70.8 36.0 33.6 17.5 24.6 33.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 23.9 31.5 40.2 81.3 42.3 38.3 26.9 35.4 44.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 19.8 24.1 34.2 72.6 37.6 35.1 21.9 30.6 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 13.8 17.7 33.4 73.1 37.9 36.1 15.5 23.5 33.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 15.4 18.8 30.8 70.8 37.0 34.8 17.0 24.6 33.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 12.1 15.9 30.9 68.6 35.1 32.4 15.0 23.4 34.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 31.0 41.7 47.8 84.1 43.5 39.9 34.1 46.7 61.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 13.8 16.4 25.9 67.4 34.9 33.0 15.7 22.5 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------