***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 -2.1 -2.8 0.0 49.8 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -3.2 -2.9 0.2 52.1 51.4 -5.1 -3.4 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.1 -2.9 0.1 50.8 51.2 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -8.2 -6.2 -5.4 0.1 50.7 52.4 -7.9 -6.2 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -3.4 -5.1 -0.2 47.5 50.0 -4.6 -3.2 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 -5.9 -5.5 -8.0 -1.7 32.0 41.0 -5.4 -4.1 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.1 0.1 51.0 50.5 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -9.2 -8.6 -6.9 -1.5 35.4 42.7 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -2.9 -4.3 -0.4 46.0 48.2 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 -5.1 -4.3 -6.1 -1.2 38.1 43.3 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.9 -5.6 -0.6 44.2 48.3 -5.0 -3.4 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -6.3 -5.2 -6.1 -1.0 40.6 46.6 -5.9 -4.4 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -6.0 -5.2 -6.9 -1.4 35.7 43.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -3.0 -4.4 -0.6 44.0 46.3 -3.9 -2.4 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.5 -4.7 0.4 54.1 54.7 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -3.2 -6.2 -0.6 43.7 48.3 -4.0 -2.8 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.4 -2.9 0.2 51.9 50.8 -5.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -7.8 -7.1 -6.9 -1.8 32.5 39.5 -7.0 -5.4 -3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -3.0 -2.9 0.2 52.3 51.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -11.2 -11.1 -8.5 -2.4 26.4 35.9 -10.3 -8.4 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.8 -3.3 -0.1 49.3 50.3 -4.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.2 52.5 51.3 -5.3 -3.7 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -3.1 -3.0 0.1 51.4 51.7 -4.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -5.1 -4.1 -4.9 -0.9 41.1 45.0 -4.8 -3.4 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -2.9 -4.8 -0.4 45.5 48.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 -5.6 -4.9 -6.6 -1.4 34.6 42.7 -5.1 -3.7 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -3.4 -3.9 -0.4 45.6 47.8 -4.6 -3.0 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -3.8 -5.1 0.3 53.3 54.5 -5.5 -4.1 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -7.6 -7.3 -7.8 -2.3 27.4 36.6 -6.8 -5.3 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.9 -2.9 0.2 51.6 51.3 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------