***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 9999.0 4.0 3.8 0.7 55.7 55.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.6 5.1 4.4 1.7 63.2 62.6 0.7 3.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 4.8 5.6 4.4 0.9 57.4 57.0 1.9 4.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.6 55.5 55.1 -1.2 0.9 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 4.5 4.2 2.4 0.1 50.5 50.4 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.6 1.0 -0.3 -2.1 30.4 31.8 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 3.2 4.4 3.9 1.4 61.6 61.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.5 -1.3 1.2 -1.3 38.1 38.9 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 5.4 5.3 3.6 0.2 52.0 51.8 2.4 5.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 4.7 3.0 2.1 -0.9 42.3 42.7 1.7 4.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 4.8 3.9 2.2 -0.4 46.6 46.7 1.9 4.3 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.4 3.4 1.6 -0.9 41.6 42.1 2.2 4.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.2 1.9 1.0 -1.6 34.8 35.8 1.6 4.1 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 5.3 5.4 4.3 0.3 52.5 52.3 2.3 5.0 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.4 6.0 3.5 1.7 64.5 63.7 1.5 4.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.4 3.8 1.5 -0.8 43.2 43.6 2.2 4.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.1 4.6 4.2 1.7 63.7 63.0 0.4 2.7 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.0 1.6 -1.5 37.3 38.1 0.5 2.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 4.0 5.5 4.6 1.6 62.8 62.2 1.0 3.6 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 -0.3 -2.1 30.0 31.5 -1.0 1.1 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 4.8 5.1 4.0 0.5 53.7 53.4 2.1 4.6 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 3.7 5.4 4.8 1.8 64.4 63.8 0.8 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 3.7 4.9 4.8 1.4 60.9 60.4 0.9 3.3 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 6.1 5.2 3.5 -0.3 47.1 47.2 3.0 5.6 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 3.9 3.4 2.3 -0.1 49.1 49.0 1.2 3.5 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.2 1.6 0.3 -1.9 30.2 31.9 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 4.8 4.3 2.9 0.0 49.8 49.7 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 5.4 6.1 2.5 1.0 57.7 57.1 2.4 4.9 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 0.5 0.9 -1.6 35.0 36.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 3.5 4.8 4.3 1.5 61.9 61.3 0.7 3.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------