***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 3.7 3.1 -0.1 49.1 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.2 2.9 0.2 52.0 49.9 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.5 3.5 0.1 50.8 49.2 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 0.2 1.6 0.2 52.8 51.0 -2.2 -0.2 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.2 2.1 0.0 49.7 49.1 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.2 0.5 -1.0 38.3 43.3 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.7 2.6 0.0 49.9 48.7 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -2.6 -1.3 1.1 -0.9 39.4 43.5 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.9 2.8 -0.1 48.6 48.3 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.4 1.9 -0.7 42.5 44.9 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.0 1.8 -0.4 45.6 47.2 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.6 4.1 1.5 -0.7 41.3 45.0 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.7 2.8 0.8 -1.1 37.2 42.9 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.1 3.0 -0.4 45.2 45.4 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.6 1.8 0.4 54.9 52.6 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 1.3 -0.5 43.4 46.2 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.9 2.7 0.2 51.7 49.6 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 0.4 1.6 1.5 -1.0 38.4 42.3 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.6 3.3 0.2 52.3 49.9 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 31.1 38.8 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.6 3.2 0.0 50.4 49.3 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.6 3.2 0.2 52.6 49.9 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.4 3.5 0.1 50.9 48.9 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.3 4.5 2.8 -0.5 44.6 45.5 3.1 5.1 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.1 1.7 -0.3 46.3 46.9 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.9 0.6 -1.1 35.8 43.0 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.5 2.2 -0.4 44.8 45.8 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.0 1.9 0.4 54.4 52.3 2.3 4.4 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -0.5 0.7 0.7 -1.3 35.0 40.6 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.1 3.0 0.1 51.3 49.5 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------