***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 2.3 4.3 0.4 54.4 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.0 3.7 3.9 0.4 53.9 53.5 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.0 4.6 0.5 55.0 53.0 2.4 4.5 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -3.6 1.0 2.9 1.0 60.9 56.0 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.6 3.6 0.9 59.4 55.0 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.0 2.5 0.9 59.0 55.8 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.5 3.2 3.7 0.3 53.1 53.0 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -0.5 3.1 0.7 58.3 54.6 -3.1 -1.4 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.0 4.3 0.7 57.8 54.1 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 1.8 5.2 3.7 0.7 57.2 53.8 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.7 3.6 0.9 59.3 55.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.8 3.5 0.9 59.8 55.8 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.6 2.9 0.8 58.6 55.5 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.3 4.3 0.3 52.8 52.2 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.6 5.1 3.0 1.1 62.2 57.2 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.4 3.2 0.9 59.6 55.5 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.7 3.2 3.7 0.3 53.6 53.8 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.1 3.4 3.3 0.4 54.3 52.4 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 0.9 4.1 4.2 0.4 54.2 53.6 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -1.0 2.2 1.5 0.3 54.0 52.3 -0.2 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.5 4.5 0.6 56.8 53.6 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.2 4.0 4.1 0.3 53.8 54.2 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.1 3.9 4.6 0.4 53.9 53.2 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.3 4.3 0.4 54.0 52.4 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 0.9 4.0 3.0 0.5 55.8 53.2 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.0 2.7 0.8 58.6 56.1 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.5 3.5 0.3 53.5 52.1 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.2 6.2 3.2 1.2 62.4 57.1 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -1.0 2.2 2.6 0.3 53.2 51.9 -0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 0.7 3.6 4.1 0.4 54.0 53.2 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------