***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 3.2 3.8 0.1 51.6 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.8 3.7 0.4 55.6 54.2 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.9 4.2 0.2 53.5 52.6 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.4 0.3 2.1 0.4 56.4 54.6 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.6 2.8 0.2 52.5 52.0 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.3 1.2 -0.6 39.9 43.6 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.3 3.4 0.2 53.6 52.8 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 2.0 -0.5 42.0 45.1 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.3 3.6 0.1 52.0 51.7 3.9 5.2 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.1 2.7 -0.3 44.4 46.7 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.6 2.7 0.0 49.4 50.0 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.6 2.4 -0.2 45.8 47.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.8 1.8 -0.5 40.9 44.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.0 3.9 -0.1 48.3 49.2 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.0 2.7 0.8 61.7 58.7 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.8 2.2 -0.1 47.5 48.7 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.4 3.5 0.4 55.3 54.0 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.4 2.3 -0.7 38.5 42.8 2.1 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.2 4.0 0.4 55.8 54.2 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -1.0 31.6 38.5 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.9 3.9 0.2 52.8 52.2 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.2 3.9 0.4 56.5 54.9 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.0 4.3 0.3 54.6 53.3 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.0 3.6 -0.2 45.9 47.6 4.0 5.3 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.4 2.4 -0.1 48.1 48.8 2.4 3.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.6 1.4 -0.6 38.9 43.7 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.9 2.9 -0.2 46.6 47.8 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 2.6 0.6 58.8 56.6 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 0.5 1.1 1.5 -0.8 35.3 40.8 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.7 3.8 0.3 54.9 53.7 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------