***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 4.2 11.2 120.4 70.1 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.2 7.7 90.9 60.1 53.8 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 4.8 7.0 10.8 114.5 68.0 62.7 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 4.5 6.6 12.5 117.1 68.7 64.7 2.1 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 8.5 9.3 13.8 125.7 71.5 67.1 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.2 10.0 13.3 133.3 73.5 69.7 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 4.3 5.2 7.8 93.5 61.2 54.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 6.5 9.7 13.6 116.1 68.7 64.2 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 6.8 7.7 14.6 133.2 73.6 69.3 2.0 3.8 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 9.0 10.3 15.3 132.6 73.5 69.3 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 7.4 8.3 13.2 124.9 71.4 67.3 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 5.4 8.1 12.3 114.8 68.4 63.9 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 9.1 10.2 14.1 135.4 74.1 70.5 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 9.8 10.4 12.9 123.1 70.7 65.7 2.9 5.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.8 3.4 6.5 63.2 46.8 43.1 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.5 8.2 12.9 126.5 71.8 67.9 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.9 7.1 84.0 58.1 51.6 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 8.1 9.0 15.9 133.0 73.5 69.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.0 6.1 8.6 98.5 62.7 56.5 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 6.3 8.6 15.0 103.6 64.6 60.1 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.9 13.7 131.4 73.1 68.6 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.7 7.6 86.7 58.8 52.0 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 4.2 6.3 10.5 112.9 67.6 61.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.1 8.8 13.9 128.6 72.3 67.7 2.9 4.8 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.7 8.4 13.7 129.4 72.4 67.3 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.5 6.1 11.2 101.5 64.6 61.1 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.6 7.3 12.8 129.6 72.5 67.2 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 4.2 4.8 9.9 96.4 60.8 57.3 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.8 16.0 124.9 71.2 66.7 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 4.2 5.3 8.5 98.7 62.6 56.5 1.8 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------