***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 4.9 11.7 110.0 67.1 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.6 10.8 112.7 68.0 56.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.2 11.5 107.9 66.0 55.7 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.3 12.4 100.9 63.3 52.4 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.6 11.6 93.3 60.0 49.3 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.3 12.5 91.8 59.6 51.2 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.1 10.6 112.4 68.0 56.2 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.8 14.2 99.8 62.6 52.4 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 6.4 13.1 103.0 63.7 53.9 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.5 13.9 100.8 62.8 53.2 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.9 11.9 97.0 61.5 51.2 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.3 6.0 12.8 100.8 63.1 53.2 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.1 11.6 88.8 58.5 49.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.6 13.8 114.1 67.6 57.7 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.9 11.1 93.4 60.2 48.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.4 11.7 93.7 60.3 50.9 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.7 9.7 103.5 65.1 53.5 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.8 15.9 108.3 65.5 56.3 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.2 11.1 112.9 67.9 56.5 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.4 19.6 107.1 65.3 54.7 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.6 12.2 102.2 64.0 54.1 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.0 10.2 101.2 63.9 52.3 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.5 9.2 11.9 115.4 68.3 57.2 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.4 13.8 110.5 66.4 57.1 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.0 13.0 106.1 65.5 54.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.9 11.8 90.1 59.1 49.6 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.8 12.9 113.2 68.0 56.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.5 11.2 92.0 59.4 49.2 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.6 17.3 109.2 65.9 56.3 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.9 11.2 114.5 68.4 56.8 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------