***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 11.2 12.3 112.3 67.6 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 8.9 9.1 12.3 120.4 69.8 59.9 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.9 12.4 112.5 67.4 58.7 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.7 10.5 12.4 103.3 64.2 55.1 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.2 12.7 107.8 65.7 56.1 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 9.0 12.7 110.6 66.8 56.3 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.7 12.5 122.7 70.6 60.9 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.3 14.6 110.1 66.3 56.4 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.1 13.3 112.7 67.2 57.7 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.7 14.4 112.5 66.9 57.4 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.7 12.2 107.6 65.5 55.2 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.6 12.9 111.2 66.8 56.1 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.9 13.0 114.1 67.6 56.7 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 18.4 18.1 14.7 118.1 68.9 60.1 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.6 10.9 93.1 60.6 51.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.1 12.1 107.7 65.6 55.1 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.1 12.4 125.6 71.5 61.1 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.2 10.7 16.3 115.8 68.1 59.3 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.7 12.3 117.7 69.0 59.4 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.9 11.3 20.3 111.9 67.2 58.5 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.9 12.7 111.7 67.0 58.2 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.8 12.5 121.4 70.3 60.0 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.7 9.0 12.6 115.6 68.4 59.6 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.4 13.8 14.5 116.4 68.4 59.5 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.9 10.6 13.7 109.8 66.5 58.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.9 12.8 108.6 66.0 55.0 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.2 13.5 112.2 67.3 59.5 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.7 11.5 98.0 62.3 52.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 18.0 17.9 115.0 68.0 59.5 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.9 8.6 12.2 117.3 68.9 59.5 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------