***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 6.4 12.8 127.3 72.1 60.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.9 6.5 12.5 134.0 73.9 59.9 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 9.8 10.5 13.0 129.3 72.7 61.0 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.7 13.6 124.4 71.5 61.5 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 13.7 14.9 13.9 127.8 72.4 61.9 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.5 13.4 13.1 129.7 72.7 60.8 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.2 12.4 132.5 73.5 59.9 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 21.0 22.9 14.7 131.9 73.3 61.9 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 11.4 14.3 129.8 72.8 62.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.3 14.3 15.0 130.3 72.9 62.2 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.8 13.0 13.0 130.3 73.0 62.3 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 11.4 12.9 12.8 135.6 74.3 62.1 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.4 15.2 13.1 136.6 74.5 62.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.0 13.3 15.6 132.7 73.5 61.6 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 10.8 12.4 121.8 70.8 59.3 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.9 12.6 131.1 73.2 62.0 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.1 6.4 12.1 130.4 73.0 59.1 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 12.2 16.9 132.2 73.4 62.6 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.4 7.1 12.7 134.4 74.0 60.3 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.5 19.9 132.9 73.6 62.8 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 10.6 11.3 13.8 129.4 72.8 62.1 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 6.3 12.2 125.5 71.6 57.1 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.3 7.1 13.3 134.7 74.1 61.4 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 12.3 13.6 15.3 131.6 73.3 62.1 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.3 12.1 14.6 128.7 72.5 62.6 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.0 14.0 13.2 139.4 75.2 63.4 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.4 13.9 128.3 72.3 61.2 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.9 10.4 12.4 121.0 70.5 59.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 16.9 18.5 18.2 131.8 73.3 62.2 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.7 12.5 132.5 73.5 60.0 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------