***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 32.8 48.1 117.3 68.1 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 24.1 29.7 43.3 115.2 67.0 60.0 14.3 21.0 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 31.6 39.4 47.7 115.9 67.6 62.7 19.3 28.1 38.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 36.6 42.8 50.9 110.9 64.6 59.8 24.3 33.4 43.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 35.4 42.0 52.1 112.9 65.9 60.6 23.0 31.9 42.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 31.1 37.6 51.7 114.3 66.9 61.0 18.9 27.1 36.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 22.6 28.1 43.4 116.0 67.5 60.5 13.6 19.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 50.6 59.4 57.2 113.4 66.2 60.7 32.7 45.2 59.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 26.6 35.0 55.4 119.0 69.7 64.2 16.7 23.9 32.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 41.9 42.8 58.5 118.0 69.1 63.6 22.6 31.0 40.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.4 36.4 50.4 113.9 66.6 61.0 18.8 26.8 36.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.1 35.7 50.8 114.3 66.8 60.7 15.1 24.0 35.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 40.7 40.4 51.8 116.5 68.2 61.9 20.1 28.6 38.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 52.2 55.5 57.0 121.9 71.3 65.1 29.5 39.7 51.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.6 27.2 40.9 92.8 52.1 48.6 16.2 25.8 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 28.9 34.3 49.4 113.2 66.1 60.3 17.4 25.3 34.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 22.6 26.7 41.2 111.7 65.1 57.6 12.9 19.3 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 39.5 42.0 64.9 121.5 71.2 65.3 19.7 28.2 38.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 27.1 33.6 44.7 116.3 67.7 60.9 17.3 24.3 32.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 33.4 41.4 74.8 113.3 66.1 60.5 19.8 29.5 41.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 36.8 37.8 52.4 118.1 69.0 64.0 19.5 27.1 35.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.6 30.2 42.5 109.3 63.7 56.5 15.5 22.9 31.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 32.2 33.5 48.2 119.6 69.6 63.6 16.6 23.4 31.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 44.2 46.5 57.4 121.4 71.0 65.4 26.4 34.3 43.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 32.5 40.8 55.0 117.8 68.6 63.8 20.9 29.2 38.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.0 29.4 49.0 107.9 62.6 56.9 14.9 22.4 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 34.8 35.3 53.0 120.3 69.8 64.7 16.0 23.7 32.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.8 45.1 101.3 57.9 53.7 14.1 22.3 32.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 62.0 64.7 69.3 119.6 69.9 63.9 33.4 45.9 60.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.2 30.2 44.5 116.2 67.6 61.2 14.6 21.3 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------