***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 -0.7 -1.4 -0.3 -4.7 13.2 14.5 2.1 4.4 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 -2.1 -3.0 0.0 -4.6 13.5 15.2 0.7 3.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 -1.2 -2.6 -0.2 -5.3 11.4 12.6 1.9 4.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 -3.6 -4.2 -2.9 -4.6 14.0 15.0 -1.2 0.9 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 -1.1 -2.4 -1.9 -5.1 11.2 12.3 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 -1.0 -2.0 -2.8 -4.8 13.3 14.8 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 -2.4 -3.2 -0.2 -4.5 13.5 15.1 0.4 2.8 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -3.8 -5.2 -2.6 -5.7 9.0 10.2 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 -0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -5.1 11.1 12.1 2.4 5.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 -1.2 -2.9 -2.0 -5.7 9.6 10.7 1.7 4.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 -1.0 -1.9 -1.2 -5.0 12.7 13.9 1.9 4.3 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 -0.8 -2.3 -2.0 -5.2 10.8 12.1 2.2 4.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 -1.2 -2.2 -1.5 -5.2 12.9 14.4 1.6 4.1 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 -5.6 11.4 12.3 2.3 5.0 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -2.7 24.9 25.9 1.5 4.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 -0.7 -1.6 -1.9 -4.9 13.1 14.4 2.2 4.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 -2.3 -3.0 0.0 -4.2 14.5 16.2 0.4 2.7 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 -1.8 -3.4 -2.3 -6.0 8.9 10.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 -1.9 -2.9 0.1 -4.6 13.5 15.0 1.0 3.6 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 -3.5 -5.3 -3.5 -5.8 8.7 10.3 -1.0 1.1 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 -0.9 -2.4 -0.3 -5.2 11.0 12.0 2.1 4.6 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 0.6 -4.1 15.2 16.9 0.8 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 -1.9 -2.8 0.2 -4.7 13.5 15.0 0.9 3.3 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 -0.3 -2.1 -0.7 -5.8 9.8 10.8 3.0 5.6 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 -1.4 -2.4 -1.2 -4.9 12.4 13.5 1.2 3.5 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 -0.6 -1.8 -2.7 -5.1 10.7 12.2 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 -1.1 -2.1 -0.6 -4.7 12.9 14.2 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.6 -4.0 18.1 19.1 2.4 4.9 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 -2.5 -4.3 -2.7 -5.8 9.2 10.5 0.2 2.4 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 -2.2 -3.3 -0.2 -4.8 12.7 14.3 0.7 3.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------