***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.4 2.2 -1.7 32.0 35.9 2.5 4.0 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 1.7 2.6 -1.3 36.4 40.1 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.8 2.8 -1.6 34.2 37.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -1.6 0.1 -1.1 38.3 39.8 -2.2 -0.2 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.7 1.2 -1.4 34.7 36.8 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.7 0.2 -1.6 32.9 35.4 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.3 1.1 2.4 -1.4 34.5 38.8 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 0.8 -1.6 33.6 36.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.2 -1.3 35.7 37.9 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.4 1.4 -1.6 33.9 36.3 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.8 1.5 -1.4 35.0 37.1 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.4 1.2 -1.4 34.7 37.0 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.3 1.1 -1.7 32.5 35.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.0 2.8 -1.4 36.4 38.8 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.5 1.9 -0.3 45.9 46.6 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.0 -1.5 34.3 36.5 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.7 -1.0 38.6 41.8 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.6 1.2 1.3 -1.7 33.3 35.9 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.0 2.8 -1.3 36.5 40.1 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -1.8 31.2 34.5 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.1 2.7 -1.4 35.5 37.9 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.4 3.1 -0.9 40.2 43.0 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.2 2.0 3.0 -1.3 36.4 39.8 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.6 -1.5 35.5 37.9 3.1 5.1 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 1.2 1.9 1.2 -1.6 32.7 35.3 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.4 0.3 -1.7 30.4 33.7 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.6 2.2 1.8 -1.8 31.0 34.6 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.5 1.1 -0.7 42.2 43.1 2.3 4.4 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.2 0.4 0.8 -1.7 32.5 35.3 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 0.6 1.4 2.4 -1.5 34.3 38.2 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------