***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 0.8 2.6 3.8 -1.1 40.3 43.4 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.1 3.9 -1.0 40.8 43.9 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.1 4.4 -1.0 41.5 44.0 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -1.9 1.4 -1.1 40.3 43.1 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.7 2.6 -1.0 41.0 43.4 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.3 2.1 -0.5 45.1 46.4 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 0.8 2.5 3.8 -1.0 40.0 43.4 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.5 2.1 -1.1 39.8 42.7 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.6 4.3 3.4 -1.0 40.9 43.3 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.0 2.6 -1.1 39.9 42.6 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.0 2.5 -1.0 40.7 43.2 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.1 2.5 -1.0 40.3 43.1 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.9 1.9 -1.0 41.0 43.6 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.0 4.6 3.7 -1.2 39.6 42.2 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.8 2.4 -0.8 42.4 45.0 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.2 2.3 -0.9 41.8 44.0 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.8 3.9 -1.1 39.8 43.2 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.1 2.7 -1.2 39.6 42.2 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.3 4.1 -1.0 41.4 44.1 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.6 1.0 -1.0 40.0 43.0 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.1 3.9 -1.0 41.3 43.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.5 4.0 -1.1 40.0 43.4 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.5 -1.0 41.6 44.0 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.4 3.6 -1.2 39.9 42.4 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.6 2.2 -1.3 38.2 41.8 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.6 1.7 -1.0 40.1 43.3 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.2 2.8 3.2 -1.2 38.9 42.4 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.6 2.0 -0.9 42.3 44.6 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.6 0.6 2.1 -1.2 39.5 42.3 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.1 2.9 3.9 -1.0 40.9 43.9 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------