***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.5 -1.9 25.8 30.4 2.9 4.0 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.6 1.7 2.7 -1.7 28.1 32.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.7 2.8 3.0 -1.9 26.0 30.7 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 0.1 -1.7 28.7 31.8 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.6 2.7 1.2 -1.9 25.6 29.3 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.5 0.4 -1.7 27.5 31.0 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.1 1.2 2.5 -1.8 26.7 31.3 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -2.5 -2.6 0.7 -2.1 22.8 26.9 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.4 2.1 -1.9 25.9 29.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.6 2.5 1.3 -2.1 23.2 27.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.4 -1.9 26.1 29.6 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.1 -1.9 24.8 28.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.6 0.9 -2.0 24.4 28.1 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.6 -2.1 24.9 29.2 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.2 1.9 -0.8 39.3 41.3 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.3 0.9 -1.8 26.4 29.9 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.5 2.7 -1.6 28.5 32.9 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 1.5 1.4 1.2 -2.3 21.9 26.3 2.1 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.9 -1.7 28.5 33.0 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -2.2 20.9 25.4 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.7 -1.8 26.2 30.4 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.1 3.0 -1.5 29.5 33.9 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.2 -1.7 28.6 33.1 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.1 2.4 -2.1 23.8 28.2 4.0 5.3 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.8 1.8 1.2 -2.0 24.5 28.6 2.4 3.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.5 0.3 -2.0 22.6 26.5 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.0 -2.0 24.4 29.0 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.4 1.0 -1.3 33.7 36.3 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 0.3 0.1 0.7 -2.2 21.7 26.1 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.4 1.5 2.6 -1.8 27.0 31.7 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------