***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.6 13.0 131.3 73.3 66.8 1.9 3.4 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 6.9 7.1 10.6 116.9 69.6 62.5 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.8 8.5 13.2 134.8 74.1 66.7 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 7.8 9.5 17.2 166.1 80.5 74.2 2.1 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 9.8 11.9 17.8 161.6 79.6 73.9 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 10.4 14.8 18.1 192.4 84.2 77.5 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.9 10.4 117.4 69.7 63.0 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 11.4 14.8 19.1 175.6 81.9 75.0 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 7.6 9.0 16.2 154.9 78.4 72.4 2.0 3.8 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 10.5 13.1 18.3 164.2 80.2 74.1 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 8.9 11.7 17.5 167.8 80.7 74.4 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 9.4 13.0 17.7 178.5 82.3 74.8 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 9.9 13.9 19.3 179.3 82.4 75.5 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 10.8 12.5 17.5 145.6 76.6 69.7 2.9 5.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 7.8 10.2 13.6 166.8 80.5 70.1 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 8.9 12.1 18.2 179.7 82.5 76.3 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.6 6.8 9.8 110.8 67.6 60.2 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 9.1 11.2 19.2 166.7 80.6 74.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.5 11.3 120.1 70.5 63.2 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 12.7 16.8 23.1 178.8 82.5 76.2 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 8.7 10.1 15.3 147.1 76.9 69.9 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.4 7.6 11.0 114.2 68.7 60.6 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 6.6 7.4 12.9 128.8 72.7 65.3 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 8.8 10.4 17.2 155.6 78.6 71.6 2.9 4.8 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 8.5 9.7 16.7 147.7 77.0 71.0 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 8.4 11.6 18.6 185.7 83.4 76.6 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.8 14.3 137.3 74.7 68.6 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 7.0 9.2 15.5 171.4 81.3 73.5 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 14.2 17.8 20.5 170.6 81.3 75.5 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.8 7.0 11.2 122.2 71.0 64.0 1.8 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------