***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.0 10.8 106.6 65.2 54.9 2.0 4.2 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.0 8.7 93.6 60.7 48.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.0 10.0 98.2 61.8 51.1 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.4 10.7 103.4 63.6 53.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.2 11.1 108.0 65.3 53.2 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.9 10.0 102.0 63.1 52.7 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.3 91.3 59.8 47.6 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.3 11.3 104.6 64.0 52.7 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.0 11.9 110.8 66.4 55.1 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.6 11.0 103.0 63.3 51.3 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.4 6.8 11.1 109.1 65.5 54.5 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.5 11.1 111.2 66.4 55.5 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 7.3 12.2 118.6 69.1 58.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.5 12.9 105.2 64.4 51.7 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.6 7.5 77.9 53.5 43.1 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.6 10.9 109.6 65.6 54.9 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.9 8.4 92.0 60.1 47.8 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.5 12.4 105.6 64.2 52.1 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.1 9.2 95.9 61.4 49.6 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.5 15.2 99.5 62.0 50.2 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.0 11.8 109.1 65.9 54.9 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.9 8.7 91.1 59.6 47.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.5 10.2 100.1 62.9 51.2 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.5 11.9 103.4 63.6 51.8 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.1 12.4 110.4 66.1 54.5 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.6 10.9 106.8 65.3 54.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.3 11.6 109.5 66.1 55.2 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.0 8.4 88.2 57.4 47.0 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.5 13.5 103.2 63.1 51.2 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.9 8.8 93.4 60.3 48.9 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------