***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.5 9.6 13.5 124.2 71.1 61.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 9.0 10.4 12.4 135.6 74.2 62.9 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.1 11.9 13.0 121.5 70.3 59.3 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.7 12.5 104.5 64.7 55.3 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.4 9.4 13.1 110.9 66.4 57.2 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 9.1 12.7 111.5 67.0 54.6 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.8 10.0 12.6 137.6 74.7 62.8 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 10.5 14.8 15.1 122.9 70.5 59.2 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.1 8.3 14.2 115.6 68.1 58.8 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 10.1 14.6 116.8 68.5 58.3 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.8 9.3 13.1 115.9 68.1 58.2 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.2 10.5 13.6 121.8 70.2 59.1 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.4 10.5 14.1 120.5 69.7 58.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.0 18.5 15.8 120.6 69.8 59.2 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.7 10.5 90.9 61.2 50.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.3 8.6 12.9 114.0 67.6 57.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 8.4 10.7 13.0 145.0 76.5 64.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.0 15.6 119.1 69.2 58.8 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.9 10.9 12.4 131.3 73.1 61.9 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.8 20.5 128.1 72.0 60.3 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.5 13.9 119.5 69.5 59.0 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 9.5 11.4 13.3 139.9 75.3 63.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.5 9.9 13.0 126.0 71.5 60.2 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.3 14.2 14.7 119.2 69.4 58.6 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.1 15.0 123.2 70.6 60.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.6 13.5 117.4 69.0 55.8 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.8 14.5 127.2 71.9 61.9 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.7 11.1 96.8 62.4 52.2 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 19.1 16.9 122.2 70.2 59.5 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.0 10.0 12.5 131.0 73.0 61.9 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------