***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.4 7.6 13.2 136.7 74.5 62.2 1.5 3.2 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.7 7.0 12.1 142.8 76.0 61.5 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.9 13.1 134.0 73.8 61.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.2 15.6 15.3 141.7 75.7 64.5 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.9 16.1 15.5 138.1 74.9 64.3 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 12.9 15.3 15.9 148.1 77.2 67.1 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.4 7.7 11.8 141.6 75.7 61.7 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 20.2 25.8 17.6 147.0 77.1 65.7 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 11.8 16.0 134.9 74.0 64.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.0 15.3 17.2 139.0 75.2 64.7 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.8 13.8 15.5 139.8 75.3 64.8 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.3 14.3 15.8 147.9 77.3 66.4 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.8 16.8 16.5 148.8 77.4 67.3 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 11.8 13.5 16.4 134.2 73.9 64.1 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.7 12.3 14.2 136.1 74.5 63.5 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.2 13.1 15.5 143.1 76.1 65.8 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.8 7.0 11.9 140.7 75.5 62.0 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 12.9 18.0 140.1 75.5 64.7 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.4 7.4 12.4 140.9 75.5 61.6 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.3 14.2 23.9 152.1 78.2 65.8 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 10.6 11.8 14.6 135.1 74.1 63.5 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 5.9 7.3 12.6 141.5 75.7 62.7 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.1 7.1 13.0 135.2 74.2 61.8 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.5 13.8 15.6 133.4 73.6 63.1 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.2 13.1 15.2 138.8 75.0 64.6 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.3 16.0 16.6 157.3 79.1 69.6 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 7.7 9.0 14.0 136.5 74.5 63.2 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 10.4 11.8 14.3 135.7 74.4 63.6 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 16.9 19.9 19.5 143.4 76.3 65.5 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.1 7.1 12.3 141.1 75.6 61.5 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------