***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 30.5 32.0 50.5 124.5 71.5 64.6 13.8 20.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 31.1 31.7 43.7 121.8 70.1 62.7 14.3 21.0 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 32.0 41.7 49.2 121.9 70.4 63.2 19.3 28.1 38.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 46.7 50.2 55.8 128.2 73.7 67.4 24.3 33.4 43.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 44.7 49.2 57.6 129.7 74.6 68.2 23.0 31.9 42.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 41.6 46.8 56.7 137.1 77.7 71.3 18.9 27.1 36.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 29.1 29.5 43.0 121.6 70.0 62.6 13.6 19.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 64.6 73.2 63.1 137.4 77.7 69.9 32.7 45.2 59.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 34.7 38.3 58.4 128.5 74.2 67.9 16.7 23.9 32.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 43.2 48.0 61.2 130.9 75.4 68.1 22.6 31.0 40.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 38.9 44.1 57.1 133.0 76.2 69.4 18.8 26.8 36.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 40.4 47.9 58.2 139.5 78.5 71.3 15.1 24.0 35.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 43.5 51.0 62.0 141.7 79.7 73.1 20.1 28.6 38.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 52.2 57.4 62.6 126.2 73.1 66.2 29.5 39.7 51.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 29.8 38.8 45.8 115.2 66.9 61.5 16.2 25.8 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 38.0 43.2 57.5 136.2 77.5 71.1 17.4 25.3 34.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 29.1 29.8 43.1 121.8 70.2 62.7 12.9 19.3 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 40.9 46.5 65.3 132.5 76.2 68.4 19.7 28.2 38.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 34.1 35.1 45.2 121.6 70.1 62.8 17.3 24.3 32.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 46.3 54.1 82.6 138.3 78.2 69.3 19.8 29.5 41.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 37.9 40.9 55.6 127.3 73.3 66.6 19.5 27.1 35.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 33.8 34.5 45.7 121.3 70.1 62.3 15.5 22.9 31.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 26.1 34.1 49.0 122.3 70.6 63.6 16.6 23.4 31.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 44.4 48.3 59.3 127.5 73.5 66.3 26.4 34.3 43.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 41.8 45.3 59.4 129.9 74.2 67.5 20.9 29.2 38.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 35.9 42.3 59.5 141.0 78.8 71.8 14.9 22.4 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 35.2 37.5 54.4 127.5 72.9 66.2 16.0 23.7 32.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 34.1 35.8 49.2 121.5 70.3 64.5 14.1 22.3 32.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 64.4 73.6 70.5 134.2 76.9 68.8 33.4 45.9 60.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 30.9 31.8 44.9 121.6 70.0 62.8 14.6 21.3 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------