***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.7 2.8 5.6 90.9 90.2 -3.8 -1.9 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.0 2.4 5.0 89.1 88.2 -5.7 -3.4 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.4 4.9 2.9 5.4 90.3 89.6 -3.2 -1.2 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 -2.2 -0.5 -0.5 4.4 86.2 84.8 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.9 1.3 5.6 90.1 89.2 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.6 0.8 -1.3 5.8 90.9 90.3 -6.9 -5.0 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.3 2.5 5.2 89.4 88.4 -5.4 -3.1 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -4.6 -2.6 -0.6 5.9 90.8 90.2 -9.0 -7.4 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.4 1.0 5.7 90.4 89.8 -5.1 -2.9 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 5.8 90.3 89.7 -5.7 -3.7 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.4 2.0 0.6 5.9 90.1 89.4 -6.0 -3.9 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.5 0.7 0.0 6.0 90.0 89.4 -6.8 -4.9 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.3 -0.4 5.6 88.8 88.3 -6.8 -4.6 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.0 2.8 1.1 5.3 87.7 87.2 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 -0.1 1.9 0.6 4.7 88.8 87.8 -5.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.8 -0.3 5.4 88.5 87.9 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.3 2.2 4.7 87.2 86.3 -5.7 -3.5 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.9 0.7 0.0 5.8 90.5 89.8 -7.8 -5.7 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.1 2.3 5.0 89.5 88.7 -5.3 -3.1 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.6 -0.7 -0.5 6.4 93.2 92.6 -11.3 -8.9 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.5 2.3 5.5 90.4 89.6 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.3 2.4 4.7 88.1 87.2 -5.8 -3.6 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.0 2.1 5.1 90.3 89.6 -5.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.0 1.2 5.5 89.0 88.4 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.9 2.1 5.5 90.3 89.4 -5.3 -3.2 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.4 -0.2 5.8 90.3 89.8 -6.0 -4.2 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.3 4.2 2.6 5.8 90.3 89.6 -5.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -1.3 0.1 -0.3 4.6 86.1 84.9 -6.6 -4.6 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -1.7 1.4 -0.5 6.4 92.3 91.8 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.8 2.7 5.3 90.3 89.5 -5.4 -3.1 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------