***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 2.5 77.0 72.4 -3.4 -2.1 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 2.3 76.6 71.6 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 0.5 1.1 -0.2 2.5 77.0 72.6 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -4.3 -4.7 -4.1 1.4 64.8 63.2 -7.9 -6.2 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 2.6 75.8 71.7 -4.6 -3.2 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 -2.4 -1.8 -4.4 2.9 78.7 74.1 -5.2 -4.0 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.2 2.5 77.4 72.1 -5.1 -3.4 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 -5.4 -4.7 -3.6 3.1 78.7 74.5 -8.7 -7.3 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.9 2.9 78.2 74.1 -3.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 -1.1 -0.6 -3.1 3.0 78.1 74.2 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 -1.2 -0.6 -2.6 3.1 78.6 74.1 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 -2.1 -1.3 -2.8 3.3 79.9 75.4 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 -1.7 -0.8 -2.9 3.3 80.6 75.7 -5.2 -3.7 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.9 2.8 77.1 74.1 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.1 1.2 64.1 63.3 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 -0.9 -0.4 -3.1 2.9 77.8 73.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.3 2.3 75.3 70.6 -5.2 -3.5 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 -2.8 -2.2 -3.3 3.0 78.4 74.9 -6.8 -5.1 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 2.3 76.7 72.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -5.7 -4.7 -4.3 3.0 78.8 74.1 -10.1 -8.2 -6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 -0.9 -0.4 -0.9 2.6 76.6 72.2 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 2.2 75.7 71.0 -5.0 -3.4 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 2.4 77.4 73.5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -0.8 -2.0 2.9 78.0 74.7 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 -1.0 -0.6 -1.3 2.5 75.5 71.3 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 -1.6 -0.8 -2.9 3.4 81.1 76.2 -4.9 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 2.7 77.3 72.5 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 -2.3 -2.8 -4.0 1.2 62.8 62.0 -5.3 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 -3.1 -2.4 -3.7 3.3 80.5 76.7 -6.6 -5.2 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 2.4 77.2 72.2 -4.7 -2.9 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------