***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 7.6 8.0 6.9 3.0 76.3 74.9 2.2 4.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.7 7.1 2.8 75.0 73.7 0.7 3.1 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.3 8.0 7.4 2.7 74.0 72.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 1.1 1.5 2.5 0.8 57.8 57.2 -1.4 0.6 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.0 5.3 2.4 72.1 70.6 1.9 4.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.1 3.8 2.1 70.0 68.8 1.6 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 6.1 6.6 7.0 3.0 76.8 75.5 0.4 2.7 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.7 4.6 1.9 68.5 67.5 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.3 6.2 2.4 72.3 70.8 2.5 4.9 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.5 5.3 2.0 69.0 67.7 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.2 5.6 2.4 71.4 70.0 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.5 5.0 2.2 71.4 70.3 2.3 4.5 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 7.6 7.6 6.1 3.0 75.5 74.6 1.7 4.0 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.6 8.0 7.2 2.4 70.4 69.3 2.1 4.8 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.5 5.6 4.0 1.2 61.3 60.5 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.7 5.0 2.4 71.6 70.4 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.2 6.0 6.7 2.6 74.2 72.7 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.1 4.4 5.5 2.3 71.3 70.1 0.4 2.1 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.5 7.2 7.3 2.8 75.1 73.8 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 3.5 3.7 4.5 2.6 74.7 73.6 -0.9 0.9 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.8 7.0 2.5 73.0 71.5 2.2 4.5 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.7 7.1 2.6 74.3 72.9 0.8 3.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 6.4 7.0 7.5 2.9 75.9 74.7 0.9 3.2 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.8 7.0 2.5 71.7 70.5 3.0 5.5 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.5 5.8 2.6 73.3 71.9 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 6.9 7.1 4.9 2.7 76.1 75.4 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 7.8 8.3 6.7 3.1 77.5 76.1 2.0 4.4 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 5.2 5.7 3.1 0.8 57.1 56.5 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.4 5.3 2.7 74.6 73.4 0.2 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 6.3 6.9 7.2 2.9 76.1 74.8 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------