***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.1 6.2 2.2 74.2 69.4 2.5 4.0 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.7 6.5 2.4 75.1 70.2 1.5 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.0 6.9 2.4 74.4 69.6 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.5 1.2 2.4 1.2 63.0 59.3 -2.3 -0.3 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.9 5.2 2.6 76.5 70.7 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.9 4.4 2.7 77.5 72.1 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.7 5.5 6.4 2.4 76.4 71.3 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 1.5 2.1 4.8 2.6 76.4 72.0 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.4 8.3 6.2 2.7 77.2 71.7 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 6.5 7.2 5.6 2.7 76.5 71.7 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.7 5.8 2.9 78.7 72.7 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.2 8.1 5.2 2.7 78.0 73.2 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 6.5 7.6 5.7 3.1 80.2 75.1 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 7.5 8.0 7.1 2.7 75.2 70.5 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.2 3.3 1.0 60.7 58.5 1.9 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.0 8.1 5.2 2.9 78.9 72.9 3.2 4.9 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.7 5.2 6.3 2.2 74.8 69.8 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 5.1 5.7 2.8 76.8 72.3 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 5.4 6.1 6.8 2.4 75.5 70.5 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.5 4.1 2.6 76.0 72.4 0.2 1.9 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.5 7.2 6.6 2.4 75.1 69.8 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 6.1 6.6 2.2 74.6 69.6 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 5.6 6.2 7.1 2.6 76.5 71.4 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 7.6 8.4 6.9 2.8 76.4 71.6 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.4 4.9 2.0 72.4 67.6 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 6.5 7.2 4.6 2.7 78.9 74.7 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.5 5.9 2.3 75.3 70.3 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.2 3.1 1.2 62.5 59.3 2.4 4.6 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.6 5.4 5.3 2.8 77.6 73.5 0.6 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.6 6.5 2.4 75.1 70.3 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------