***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 6.0 6.1 1.7 66.0 62.2 1.9 4.0 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.0 6.0 1.6 64.5 61.8 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.1 7.1 6.6 1.6 65.1 61.4 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.2 1.1 3.8 1.9 67.6 63.1 -2.8 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.7 4.9 1.8 67.1 62.7 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.7 3.7 1.6 65.2 61.4 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.7 6.0 1.6 65.1 62.2 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.2 4.1 1.4 63.6 60.5 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.4 5.6 1.7 65.7 61.5 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.8 4.8 1.5 64.1 60.5 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.0 4.8 1.7 66.1 62.1 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.8 4.5 1.5 64.4 61.2 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 7.1 6.7 3.9 1.5 64.7 61.3 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.8 5.9 1.4 62.7 59.4 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.5 4.4 1.7 66.0 62.2 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.2 4.4 1.7 66.3 62.2 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.5 6.0 1.4 63.6 61.4 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.3 4.8 1.4 62.8 59.7 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.2 6.3 1.6 64.5 61.7 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.9 2.7 1.2 61.8 59.4 0.0 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.1 6.1 1.7 65.7 61.6 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.4 6.1 1.4 63.2 61.2 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.5 6.7 1.6 64.5 61.2 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.4 5.8 1.4 63.4 59.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 5.8 5.7 4.8 1.8 67.3 62.9 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.3 3.8 1.5 65.8 62.6 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.3 5.6 1.7 66.4 62.4 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.5 4.2 1.8 66.5 62.5 3.7 5.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 3.3 4.1 1.3 62.1 59.5 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.3 5.9 6.1 1.6 65.1 62.1 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------