***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.5 7.6 78.5 55.9 45.0 1.4 2.8 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.1 7.8 94.3 62.2 52.5 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.8 7.7 80.0 56.4 44.6 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 7.0 9.2 17.8 168.3 80.2 71.8 2.3 3.9 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.1 10.5 91.1 61.1 53.1 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.4 7.2 11.9 115.9 69.2 63.7 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.8 6.0 8.2 100.6 64.4 55.4 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.8 8.2 12.7 110.6 67.4 60.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.7 10.4 96.5 62.9 52.9 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.5 11.9 97.0 63.2 55.1 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 4.3 5.4 10.7 98.8 63.6 56.3 1.6 3.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 4.6 6.7 11.4 110.8 67.5 61.1 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 4.3 6.3 12.2 102.2 65.2 60.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.8 9.5 78.2 55.6 45.0 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 8.2 13.8 18.8 230.1 88.8 79.7 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 4.6 6.3 11.3 104.1 65.6 59.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.1 7.5 8.9 113.9 68.5 60.5 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.3 12.5 96.7 62.6 54.7 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.8 7.7 88.7 60.0 49.9 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.0 8.5 15.1 109.8 66.9 60.1 2.1 4.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.1 9.2 88.5 59.9 49.1 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.9 9.3 112.8 68.0 58.7 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.0 7.3 77.7 55.5 45.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.3 10.0 85.2 58.4 48.3 2.1 4.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.7 9.8 82.6 57.3 47.5 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.4 6.2 11.6 110.3 67.5 62.5 2.1 3.8 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.1 8.4 79.8 56.3 46.3 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 7.0 9.8 18.0 199.2 84.1 76.3 2.0 3.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.6 9.7 13.6 104.6 65.0 56.8 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.8 7.4 86.1 59.2 49.0 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------