***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.0 9.6 90.0 59.3 48.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.0 8.4 95.1 61.9 50.1 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.7 9.5 91.8 60.4 49.3 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.4 10.3 88.0 58.0 46.7 4.1 8.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 10.4 91.2 59.5 50.3 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.5 9.4 88.2 57.2 48.0 2.2 4.2 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.3 94.6 61.7 49.6 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.1 11.3 89.6 58.6 48.0 4.5 9.0 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.8 10.0 83.5 55.9 46.6 2.6 4.9 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.0 10.7 88.1 58.1 48.4 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 10.4 88.0 58.0 49.2 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.8 10.1 86.0 56.9 47.5 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.6 10.0 84.5 56.0 47.2 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 11.9 91.5 59.7 49.6 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.0 10.4 94.3 62.1 47.5 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.1 10.0 88.3 57.5 48.2 1.8 3.8 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.3 8.5 98.5 63.4 51.3 2.0 3.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.8 11.5 89.9 58.0 48.5 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.9 8.7 93.4 61.2 50.0 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.7 17.2 106.9 65.4 51.9 2.7 5.3 8.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 9.9 86.6 57.7 47.6 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.9 8.5 91.3 61.0 50.6 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.9 7.3 9.7 94.0 61.4 51.0 2.3 4.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.7 10.6 87.5 57.4 48.3 2.9 6.0 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.1 11.2 93.6 60.0 49.4 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.4 10.1 92.0 59.6 49.7 2.0 3.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.0 10.0 90.7 59.0 48.3 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.4 9.7 89.5 59.2 47.2 2.1 4.6 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.1 13.4 95.3 60.5 49.9 4.0 8.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.6 8.8 94.6 61.7 50.2 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------