***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.8 6.9 8.1 81.7 53.4 40.1 3.4 6.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.1 7.0 81.9 54.9 38.6 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.4 8.2 84.6 55.3 40.6 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.6 9.9 98.6 61.6 44.5 3.7 6.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.7 9.9 90.7 57.8 44.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.5 10.0 97.8 60.8 46.6 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.4 6.2 7.0 81.8 54.7 38.4 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.8 11.9 102.2 62.6 47.2 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.1 10.5 88.2 56.1 43.9 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.5 9.2 11.9 97.7 60.5 46.4 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.4 10.0 94.2 59.3 45.3 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.3 10.1 96.1 60.1 46.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.2 9.8 86.8 55.9 45.2 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.3 13.3 11.4 90.1 57.8 44.1 5.9 10.5 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 11.9 10.7 118.7 69.6 44.5 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.6 9.4 90.7 57.9 45.3 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.3 7.2 85.9 56.9 40.5 2.7 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.2 12.8 98.9 61.2 47.4 3.5 6.6 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.0 7.3 82.7 55.0 39.3 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.6 16.0 103.9 63.4 49.1 3.6 6.9 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.4 9.4 85.5 55.1 43.3 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.2 7.7 87.6 58.1 41.8 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.5 8.1 84.2 55.0 40.3 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.5 11.0 10.9 92.5 58.6 44.6 4.6 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.3 9.6 84.7 54.2 43.2 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.4 10.5 99.2 62.1 47.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.8 6.8 8.7 80.5 52.5 40.7 2.9 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.1 10.1 109.0 65.6 45.7 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 15.2 13.9 100.5 61.8 48.1 6.2 10.9 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.2 6.0 7.2 81.3 54.2 38.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------