***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.7 9.9 96.0 62.0 45.1 1.3 2.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.8 4.2 9.2 95.3 62.5 44.1 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.3 9.3 92.9 60.4 43.8 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.7 9.4 10.2 96.1 61.7 44.9 4.0 6.9 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.0 9.9 91.7 59.5 44.9 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.8 9.5 96.1 60.6 44.7 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.7 9.2 96.3 62.8 44.6 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.0 15.4 11.1 99.5 62.1 46.2 6.3 11.0 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.6 10.2 90.7 58.6 44.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.2 11.0 94.8 59.9 46.0 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.4 9.7 94.3 60.1 44.9 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.8 9.7 97.9 61.7 45.2 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.3 10.1 94.2 59.6 44.8 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.1 8.1 11.6 95.5 60.6 45.8 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.5 9.4 92.6 61.3 42.4 1.7 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.5 6.8 9.5 93.5 59.6 44.7 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.7 9.4 98.8 63.9 45.6 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.0 11.5 94.7 59.7 46.6 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.3 9.3 94.6 61.8 43.8 1.7 3.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.8 15.0 99.8 62.3 48.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.2 9.7 89.7 58.6 44.3 2.9 5.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.4 9.6 96.2 63.1 45.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.4 4.0 9.7 95.8 61.3 44.2 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.0 10.3 92.1 58.9 44.8 3.7 6.3 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.1 11.2 94.9 61.4 45.6 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.5 8.5 9.8 100.9 63.2 45.5 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.5 10.7 96.4 62.1 46.0 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.1 6.0 9.2 93.0 60.5 43.5 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 12.6 12.4 95.4 60.0 47.1 5.9 9.7 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.0 9.4 96.9 62.8 44.3 1.9 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------